Anil Fauzy Pengarang

Global warming, which triggers climate change, has become a major issue worldwide, including in Pekanbaru City. The significant increase in air temperature and rainfall in recent years is closely related to electricity consumption. Therefore, forecasting air temperature, rainfall, and electricity consumption, as well as analyzing the relationship among these variables, is essential for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study aims to forecast air temperature, rainfall, and electricity consumption in Pekanbaru City and to determine the influence of air temperature and rainfall on electricity consumption. The data used were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Pekanbaru City for the period 2023–2024, to forecast conditions for the years 2025–2026. The methods applied were decomposition for forecasting and multiple linear regression for analyzing the relationship among variables. The results show that during 2025–2026, air temperature and electricity consumption are projected to decrease, while rainfall is expected to increase. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for forecasting was 2.4% for air temperature, 29.96% for rainfall, and 1.93% for electricity consumption, indicating good accuracy, particularly for temperature and electricity consumption. Regression analysis reveals that air temperature and rainfall influence electricity consumption by 11.4%. The projected averages are 27.20°C for air temperature, 252.53 mm for rainfall, and 128.51 GWh for electricity consumption.